ON BEING WRONG

I am a trader.

As a trader I manage uncertainty, or the unknown right side of the chart.  I have no choice but to live with the unknown as the market cannot be predicted.  Since prediction is not a science I must live with the ever present possibility of being wrong.  Therefore, in managing the right side of the chart, I must also acknowledge, accept, manage, and learn from my wrongness.  Difficult? Yes.  Enjoyable? No.  Manageable? Absolutely.

 

According to Kathryn Schulz…

In our collective imagination, error is associated not just with shame and stupidity but also with ignorance, indolence, psychopathology, and moral degeneracy. This set of associations was nicely summed up by the Italian cognitive scientist Massimo Piattelli-Palmarini, who noted that we err because of (among other things) “inattention, distraction, lack of interest, poor preparation, genuine stupidity, timidity, braggadocio, emotional imbalance,…ideological, racial, social or chauvinistic prejudices, as well as aggressive or prevaricatory instincts.”
Of all the things we are wrong about, this idea of error might well top the list. It is our meta-mistake: we are wrong about what it means to be wrong. Far from being a sign of intellectual inferiority, the capacity to err is crucial to human cognition. Far from being a moral flaw, it is inextricable from some of our most humane and honorable qualities: empathy, optimism, imagination, conviction, and courage. And far from being a mark of indifference or intolerance, wrongness is a vital part of how we learn and change. Thanks to error, we can revise our understanding of ourselves and amend our ideas about the world.

From Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error

 

“Wrongness is a vital part of how we learn and change”.  Markets are always in a state of change.  The markets can teach us something about ourselves in spite of our “inattention, distraction, lack of interest, poor preparation, genuine stupidity, timidity, braggadocio, emotional imbalance,…ideological, racial, social or chauvinistic prejudices, as well as aggressive or prevaricatory instincts.”

But we have to be willing to listen.  We have to embrace our wrongness.  We have to be willing to change as often as the market requires.

Just a thought.

 

 

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